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GE

GOLDEN ENTERTAINMENT, INC. (GDEN)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $163.6M and Adjusted EBITDA $38.4M; diluted EPS was $0.17. Results were driven by strong Nevada locals performance but offset by unusually low table game hold in Laughlin and a June slowdown at The STRAT tied to Strip softness .
  • Versus consensus: EPS slightly beat ($0.17 vs $0.16*) while revenue missed ($163.6M vs $166.9M*) and Adjusted EBITDA was roughly in line/slight miss ($38.4M vs $38.7M*) . The revenue miss was primarily attributable to <10% table hold at Laughlin, which reduced EBITDA by ~$1.5M .
  • Sequentially, revenue and EBITDA increased vs Q1 2025 ($160.8M revenue, $37.6M Adjusted EBITDA), while year-over-year trends were down vs Q2 2024 ($167.3M revenue, $41.2M Adjusted EBITDA) due to tavern promotions and Laughlin hold impact .
  • Capital returns remained a key catalyst: $14.6M buybacks (514K shares at $28.47), $0.25 quarterly dividend paid July 9 and authorized again for Oct 3; $77.2M remains under buyback authorization .
  • Management expects stabilization in Strip bookings from August and tailwinds in Q4/Q1’26 from convention recovery and Nevada tax legislation (tips/overtime relief; accelerated depreciation), with tavern EBITDA stabilizing in July as promotional intensity recedes .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Nevada locals casinos delivered segment EBITDA growth for a third straight quarter, with margins up 170 bps YoY to >46%; Las Vegas locals casinos grew EBITDA >9% YoY .
  • Cost discipline at The STRAT mitigated lower midweek volumes; weekend occupancy remained 90–100% and service scores improving; ongoing direct booking efforts reducing OTA mix .
  • Capital allocation: continued dividends and active buybacks; ~$77M remaining authorization, low net leverage (~2.6x) affords capacity to return capital .

What Went Wrong

  • Laughlin table game hold was <10%, creating a ~$1.5M EBITDA headwind; without this anomaly, Resorts EBITDA would have been stable YoY .
  • Las Vegas Strip softness in June pressured The STRAT occupancy to 60% (vs 76% LY) and EBITDA down ~5% YoY despite cost controls .
  • Tavern revenue down 7% YoY amid heightened competitive promotions and lower late-night volumes from Strip workers; reinvestment increased modestly but remains below peers .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods

MetricQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$167.3 $164.2 $160.8 $163.6
Net Income ($USD Millions)$0.6 $3.0 $2.5 $4.6
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.02 $0.10 $0.09 $0.17
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$41.2 $39.2 $37.6 $38.4
Adjusted EBITDA Margin (%)24.6% (Calc: 41.2/167.3) 23.9% (Calc: 39.2/164.2) 23.4% (Calc: 37.6/160.8) 23.5% (Calc: 38.4/163.6)

Actual vs Consensus (Q2 2025)

MetricActualConsensusSurprise
Revenue ($USD Millions)$163.6 $166.93*-$3.33M (-2.0%)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$38.44 $38.70*-$0.26M (-0.7%)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$0.17 $0.16*+$0.01
  • EPS estimates: 7 covering analysts; Revenue estimates: 7 covering analysts*.
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment Breakdown (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

SegmentRevenue Q2 2024 ($M)Revenue Q2 2025 ($M)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2024 ($M)Adj. EBITDA Q2 2025 ($M)
Nevada Casino Resorts$101.1 $98.2 $27.4 $26.0
Nevada Locals Casinos$37.9 $38.9 $16.9 $18.1
Nevada Taverns$28.2 $26.3 $7.8 $5.9
Corporate & Other$0.22 $0.26 ($10.9) ($11.5)

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2025Notes
The STRAT Occupancy69% (Q2), June 60% vs 76% LY Midweek softness; weekend 90–100% occupancy
Laughlin Table Hold<10% ~$1.5M EBITDA headwind
Tavern Revenue YoY-7% Promotional intensity moderating in July
Share Repurchases514,150 shares; $14.6M @ $28.47 $77.2M authorization remaining
Dividend$0.25/share paid Jul 9; next $0.25 payable Oct 3 Authorized Aug 5
Debt$436.9M total; $392M term loan; $40M revolver Cash $52.3M; $200M revolver availability

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
DividendQuarterly$0.25/share recurring $0.25/share payable Oct 3, 2025 Maintained
Share RepurchaseOngoing$91.8M remaining (Q1) $77.2M remaining (Q2) Ongoing execution
Strip/Resorts OutlookQ3–Q4 2025Stabilization expected Stabilization in Aug; optimism into Q4/Q1’26 with convention/ group tailwinds Maintained/clarified
Taverns2H 2025Potential promo impact July EBITDA stabilizing; expect improved 2H performance; two new builds in next six months Improved outlook
Tax/Legislation Impact2025–2026Discussed tips relief Accelerated depreciation $10–$15M tax shield ($2–$3M cash flow); 2026 slot-reporting threshold uplift helps taverns Clarified magnitude

No formal revenue/EBITDA guidance ranges were provided in Q2 materials .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024, Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Las Vegas Strip demand (The STRAT)Midweek occupancy down; cost control focus; OTA mix ~65% trending lower June slowdown; Q2 occupancy 69%; stabilization in August; weekends strong; cost adjustments (valet, F&B hours) Stabilizing with cost actions; near-term cautious
Laughlin performanceSmaller, more frequent events; market share gains Event-led revenue; <10% table hold drove ~$1.5M EBITDA headwind Core demand solid; hold anomaly
Nevada localsMargins ~46%; stable spend; strength in April Third consecutive EBITDA growth; margins +170 bps YoY to >46% Improving
Taverns promotionsNew taverns ramping; disciplined reinvestment; promo pressure from small operators Revenue down 7% YoY; July EBITDA stabilizing; two new builds upcoming Stabilizing; growth projects
Capital allocationLow leverage; buybacks/dividends ongoing $14.6M repurchases; $0.25 dividend; $77M remaining authorization Continued
M&A posturePrefer buybacks; wait-and-see on rates/valuations Lower priority; revisit with rate cuts and stabilized Strip; focus on organic/capital returns Deprioritized near term
Tax/tips legislation~$2M benefit tied to tips; supportive of spend $10–$15M accelerated depreciation tax shield; 2026 slot-reporting threshold helps taverns Increasing tailwinds into 2026
Conventions/group tailwindsExpect 2025/26 uplift; LVCC expansion to benefit proximity Seeing August stabilization; optimistic Q4/Q1’26 Building into Q4/Q1’26
Atomic Golf/amenitiesRent/rev share starting; packaging with rooms Receiving rent; strong revenue first six months; cross-traffic opportunities Positive ancillary driver

Management Commentary

  • “Our Nevada locals casinos continue to demonstrate strong performance in Q2… EBITDA up 7%… margins up 170 basis points… over 46% for this segment.” — Charles Protell .
  • “Our tables games held less than 10%, which negatively impacted EBITDA by $1,500,000… Normalizing for unusually low hold would have resulted in increased EBITDA in Laughlin and stable year over year EBITDA for Nevada Resorts segment.” — Charles Protell .
  • “Weekends continue to be pretty solid… 90% to 100% occupancy… we are positioned well to force multiply on a revenue growth side… when it does occur.” — Blake Sartini .
  • “With low net leverage of 2.6 times, we have plenty of capacity to continue to return capital to shareholders and we see no better use of our capital at this time.” — Charles Protell .
  • “We are confident that we will see improved Tavern performance in the back half of the year and we have two new builds scheduled to open over the next six months.” — Charles Protell .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tax bill impacts: Accelerated depreciation yields $10–$15M tax shield ($2–$3M cash flow); 2026 slot-reporting threshold increase expected to benefit taverns; tips/overtime relief supports local spend .
  • 2H outlook: Positive on locals/taverns; Laughlin consistent; The STRAT hardest to forecast beyond near-term, but green shoots in August and optimism into Q4/Q1’26 with stronger conventions .
  • Cost mitigation at The STRAT: Midweek service curtailments, aggressive fixed-cost control; weekends solid; direct bookings increasing; OTA mix trending down .
  • M&A stance: Remains a lower priority amid rate/valuation uncertainty; focus on organic operations and capital returns; potential reconsideration with market tailwinds .
  • Consumer behavior: Locals database healthy; tavern customers resilient, less exposed to equity markets; minor spend pullbacks but stabilized trends .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 EPS beat consensus ($0.17 actual vs $0.16*), while revenue missed ($163.6M vs $166.9M*) and Adjusted EBITDA was slightly below consensus ($38.4M vs $38.7M*). The revenue/EBITDA shortfall was primarily due to anomalously low Laughlin table hold (<10%) and Strip softness in June .
  • Estimate coverage: 7 analysts for EPS and revenue*. Given the near-term stabilization signs and tax/convention tailwinds, models may shift mix assumptions (higher locals margins, tempered Strip midweek occupancy) and adjust tavern growth recovery cadence*.
  • Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Locals strength offsets Strip volatility: Segment margins >46% and EBITDA growth are sustaining the core P&L, providing downside protection .
  • Transient headwinds are identifiable: Laughlin’s low hold and Strip midweek softness explain the miss; normalization plus cost actions should lift run-rate results .
  • Capital returns likely persist: Low leverage and $77M buyback capacity underpin ongoing dividends and repurchases, a support for the equity story .
  • Near-term watch items: August bookings at The STRAT, tavern comp normalization, competitive promo environment; monitor Q3 cadence for stabilization .
  • Medium-term catalysts: LV convention calendar improvements and Nevada tax legislation benefits (tips/overtime relief; accelerated depreciation; slot-reporting threshold) support 2026 trajectory .
  • Valuation sensitivity: With EBITDA impacted by non-operational hold variance, investors should focus on normalized resort earnings and segment mix stability .
  • Execution priorities: Continue lowering OTA mix, cost efficiency midweek at The STRAT, ramp tavern openings, and maintain disciplined reinvestment strategy .